Sports Picks & Predictions

I like the Mavs to win this game and cover this spread at home against the Thunder. This pendulum has swung and all the momentum heading into Game 6 into Dallas's direction and they will not squander this. Experience matters and the likes of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving have been in a situation like this many times before. The biggest difference maker in this series has been the 3PT shooting. The Mavericks have made 14 more 3PT shots this series (67-53) and will make more tonight as well. The Mavs depth has been a problem for the OKC lineup as the Mavs bench has been scoring more than some of OKC's starters - last game Luka and Kyrie combined for just 43 points and they won by 12. Dallas is hungry and should have closed this series out days ago and should be resting right now. Dallas is 16-6 when the spread is -5 to -2 and OKC is just 22-22-1 ATS on the road. Lay the points with the Mavs here. -Joey Tron

I like the Nuggets to cover this spread on the road against the T-Wolves tonight. The Nuggets have now won 3 in a row in this series after falling in the first two and the pendulum has completely swung. The Nuggets have won the last 3 games by an average score of 16 points and have had no response for the Joker & Murray. Experience matters the deeper you get into the playoffs and this is evident with the young T-Wolves roster who are now in a BIG hole. Denver has one of the most complete rosters and will not take any chances tonight. The Nuggets are 8-4 ATS as a dog and the Timberwolves are 20-24 ATS at home. Take the Nuggets with the points here. -Joey Tron

I like the Pacers to cover this spread on the road against the Knicks in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semi Finals. The Pacers absolutely dominated the Knicks in Indiana, by a scoreline of 232-195. The Pacers not only controlled almost every game in Gainbridge wire to wire, but they maintained control of the pace and tempo which is imperative in beating this Knicks team. The Pacers offense was shooting lights out in Games 3 & 4, averaging 41.5% from 3PT and averaged 52% from the field. The Knicks have looked fatigued since they left MSG and the non-stop playing of Jalen Brunson & Donte DiVencenzo is starting to take a toll on this Knicks starting 5, as no one else has been able to step up from their bench. Tyrese Haliburton is finding his stride and Pascal Siakam has shown the difficulty of defending him without having OG Anunoby. The Pacers are 28-16 ATS after playing a home game this season and 25-16 ATS as a dog. Take the points with the Pacers here. -Joey Tron

I like the Thunder to cover this spread on the road against the Mavs in a quick turnaround game which favors OKC. Defense was slowly turned off by both teams in Game 2, and a more offensive tempo gives a big edge to the OKC Thunder. The Thunder offense is averaging 120 PPG and are shooting 38% from 3PT range, which is 1st in the NBA. In addition to this, they rank 3rd in overall offensive rating where as the Mavs defense sits T16th in this category. OKC no doubt struggled to stop the Mavs 3PT ball last game as Dallas shot 49% (18-37), and won by only 9 points. OKC typically holds teams to 36% from 3PT and we will see Dallas come back down to reality in this one, where they are used to shooting just 36% from 3. Road teams are 130-79 ATS the last 5 seasons when revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite. OKC will have revenge on their mind and do everything possible to not fall 2 in a row. Take the points with OKC here. -Joey Tron

I like the T-Wolves to cover this spread at home in Game 3 against the Nuggets, after winning both games on the road in Denver. The T-Wolves defense has show they are too much to handle as they are stronger and quicker on the ball than Denver is both offensively and defensively. Minnesota has forced a total of 28 turnovers thru the first 2 games and has held this Nuggets offense to below 100 points in both Games 1 & 2. Offensively, the T-Wolves have been shooting great from 3 PT - 39% in Game 1 and 41% in Game 2. The Nuggets defense has struggled to defend the 3PT line all series and I do not see it getting any better for them tonight as Minnesota typically shoots the ball even better at home. The Wolves return a key component in their lineup tonight in Rudy Gobert and his presence will make a big difference on the court. The Wolves are 16-7 ATS after covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season and the Nuggets are 18-24 ATS on the road. Lay the points with the T-Wolves at home here. -Joey Tron

We took the Pacers in Game 1 giving us the cover, and we are taking them again in Game 2, which is what I see a MUST win game for them. The Pacers were up 9 going into half, and played sloppy down the stretch however their offensive productivity is exactly what they need against this Knicks defense. The Pacers shot 52% from the field and 38% from 3PT (10 made) and that is how you contest with them. In addition to this, Indiana scored 64 points in the paint and had 46 bench points showing the depth of this offense. It will be hard for the Pacers to contain Jalen Brunson, but containing Josh Hart and Donte DiVencenzo to 50 or less is the recipe to success at MSG. The Pacers are 27-16 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season and the Knicks are just 8-9 when the spread was -6 to -3. Take the points with the visiting Pacers here. -Joey Tron

I like the Thunder to cover this spread at home and start their second round series with a win. The Thunder swept the Pelicans with ease holding them to 92 points or less in every game and displayed a physical and fast paced tempo. The Mavs took the Clippers to 6 games and their were signs of vulnerability that the Thunder can certainly capitalize on. The Mavs defense really struggles to stop shooting near proximity (64%) and from 3PT (36.8%) and this is two of OKC's strongest offensive components as they rank 1st in 3PT shooting and 8th from the mid range. This game can very well become a shootout, and I like the OKC Thunder to close this out for us down the stretch, as they are shooting 82% at the FT Line. OKC is 28-15 ATS at home this season and 17-8 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season. Take the well rested OKC Thunder to cover this spread. -Joey Tron

I like the Pacers to cover this spread on the road against the Knicks. Both teams had great Game 6 victories and the Pacers momentum will be difficult to stop. The Pacers offense scored 115+ in 4 of the 6 games they played against the Bucks and played the Knicks great in the regular season, shooting 49% from 3 PT range against them in the 3 games they played and averaged 123 PPG. The Knicks defense struggles to stop shooting from the Mid Range (43.5%) and 3PT (36.5%) and this the Pacers two strongest areas on offense giving them a huge advantage here. The Pacers thrive when they control the tempo and pace early on and I look for them to do just that behind the likes of Haliburton and Siakam. The Pacers are 26-16 ATS following a home game this season and the Knicks are 2-11 ATS off a road win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons. Take the points with the visiting Pacers here. -Joey Tron

I like the Celtics to cover this spread at home and finish off this series against the Heat. Outside of Game 2, the Celtics have dominated every moment of this series. The Heat have been held to 94 points or less in 3 of the 4 games this series and I do not see it getting any better tonight, as they are facing a win or go home game on the road. The Celtics rank 1st in offensive rating shooting an eFG of 57.8% and are lethal behind the 3PT line shooting 38.8%. The Heat defense has struggled immensely at stopping this Celtics offense, especially under the rim. Defensively, the Celtics rank 2nd in defensive rating and have been shutting down this Heat offense. The Celtics are too fast and to versatile for this Heat team to keep up with. The Celtics are 11-3 ATS when the spread is -15.5 to -12.5. Lay the points with the Boston Celtics here. -Joey Tron

I like the Thunder to cover this spread and finish this series with a sweep. The Pelicans have had zero answer for this Thunder offense and it is hard to believe they will put the pieces together tonight. The Pelicans offense has yet to score over 100 points in a game this series, and they will be desperate to take as many shots as they can tonight if they want any chance at winning. The Thunder defense has held the Pels to an eFG of 45% or worse every game this series and are dominating the paint. The Thunder have scored 130 points in the paint and this where all the bleeding is happening and will continue to happen. The Thunder have found their groove and are shooting lights out, especially from 3 PT where they are ranked 1st in the NBA. The Thunder are 15-2 ATS off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Lay the points with the Thunder here. -Joey Tron

I like the Nuggets to cover this spread on the road tonight and end the series with a sweep. The Lakers looked read to go home towards the end of last game and that 2nd half comeback by Denver sucked the life out of the Lakers. The Nuggets have dominated the Lakers since last playoffs series where they swept them 4-0 and theirs no reason they cannot do it again tonight. Denver has been out playing Lakers all series, and AD has no response to Murray or Jokic. The Nuggets have now out rebounded the Lakers 145 to 116 and that is truly the difference in this series. The Nuggets are getting plenty of second chance scoring chances and are limiting the Lakers rebounds on offense preventing them for scoring. Denver is too lethal from different areas on the court for the Lakers to stop them. This game can get ugly down the wire. Lay the points with the Nuggets here. -Joey Tron

I like the Pacers to win this game and cover this spread at home against the Bucks tonight. Outside of the first half in Game 1, the Pacers have out played the Bucks and I look for that to continue at home tonight. The Pacers offense is ranked 1st in FG% at 50.5% and are averaging the 11th most made 3s per game, with 13. At home, their FG% goes up to 51.5% and I look for them to shoot over that tonight, the same way they did in Game 1. The Bucks biggest weakness on defense is their Mid Range defense as teams are shooting 44% against them from here and this where the Pacers can take control of the game, where they are shooting 48.9%. The Bucks are beat up and looking fatigued while the Pacers are looking energized and refocused returning to play home. The Bucks are 3-8 ATS as a road dog and the Pacers are 22-17-2 ATS at home. Lay the points with the Pacers here. -Joey Tron

I like OKC to cover this spread at home against the Pels after just barely edging them out by 2 last game. The Thunder are ranked 3rd in offensive rating and have one of the best FG%’s in the NBA, shooting 57.3%. They are ranked 1st in 3PT shooting at 38.8% and are Top 4 from the Mid Range. The Thunder shot 44% from the field and 31% from 3PT - something I do not see them doing in back to back games. The Thunder defense is ranked 4th in the NBA and is holding teams to an eFG of 53% are lethal are guarding under the rim, keeping teams to just 59% near proximity. The Thunder are 3-0 after falling to score 100+ points in a game, winning those games by an average of 10.3 points. Home favs are 32-11 ATS in the 2nd game of a playoff series over the L5 seasons. Lay the points with the Thunder here. -Joey Tron

I like the Cavs to cover this spread and jump out to a 2-0 series lead against the Magic. The difference maker in Game 1 was the presence in the paint where the Cavs out rebounded them by 14 and scored 12 more points in the paint than them. The Cavs offense is shooting 44.8% from the mid range and 63% in front of the rim and this is two of the Magic's weakest links on defense. The Cavs defense was excellent holding the Magic to 33% from the field and 22% from 3PT. I do not expect the Cavs defense to repeat those excellent numbers, however the Cavaliers are taller, stronger and more experienced than the Magic and will have their way with them in front of their home crowd once again on Monday night. Home teams are 35-10 ATS in the 2nd game of a playoff series over the L5 seasons. Lay the points with the Cavs at home. -Joey Tron

I like the Pelicans to cover this spread at home against the Kings and and take the 8 seed in the NBA playoffs. The Pelicans may be on a slide and without Zion - however the Pels have owned the Kings this year (5-0 ATS & SU) and I do not see that changing without Zion Williamson. The Pelicans are ranked 6th in the NBA in adjusted defensive rating and are going to have a great match up against the Kings. The Pels are holding teams to 34% from 3PT and 42% from the mid range and will give the Kings a hard time scoring as this is their strongest link on offense. New Orleans ranks 13th in adjusted offensive rating and will have certain key strengths against this Kings defense. The Pels are shooting 38% from 3PT and the Kings rank 29th in 3PT% defense giving a huge advantage for the Pels as they rank 1st in the NBA in 3PT% their L5 games. The Kings are 5-13 ATS against Southwest division opponents this season. Take the points with the Pels here. -Joey Tron

I like the Sixers to cover this spread at home against the Heat and take the 7 seed. The Sixers looked great down the stretch winning and covering 8 straight - the Heat have won 3 of 4 and covered 50% of those games. The Sixers offense ranks 14th in offensive rating and shoot 42% from the mid range and 36% from 3PT. The Heat defense is great at defending the 3PT shot however teams are 65% in the front of the rim, and I look for Embiid to EAT down low in this game. Defensively, the Sixers are ranked 11th in defensive rating and are ranked 1st in defensive mid range shooting %. The Sixers weakest link on defense is their Rim% defense, however the Heat rarely play the ball down here. The Sixers have been playing great and I do not see them wanting to play in a win or go home game. The Sixers are 10-2 ATS in home games off a home win by 10 points or more this season. Lay the points with the Sixers here. -Joey Tron