Picks
Handicappers
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Ben Burns |
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| Top CUSA play goes Early (Sun. Football = 4-0 YTD). Ben was 2-0-1 with Saturday's college football picks. However, many/most managed to go 3-0, as the line on Notre Dame came down. Either way, another strong day. |
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| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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MLB | Sep 05, 2010 Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres |
San Diego Padres -125 at 5DIMES |
Lost $125.0 |
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I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Padres are in the midst of a horrific slide and are on the verge of being swept. I expect them to have the advantage this afternoon though and look for them to finally bounce back with a much-needed victory. Richard has been very tough at home all season. In 14 starts here, he's got a stellar 2.94 ERA and 1.184 WHIP. He's averaged greater than six innings per start here and has an impressive 82 K's (with only 33 walks) in 88 2/3 innings. Richard has been particularly stingy lately. Over his last three starts, he has a 1.33 ERA. Like Richard, De La Rosa has also been pitching very well lately. However, unlike Richard at home, De La Rosa's season long road stats remain poor. In six road starts, he's still got an ugly 4.81 ERA and 1.545 WHIP. The Rockies did win his last road start but are still just 1-4 his last five away from Colorado. After facing right-handers in four straight games, the Padres should be happy to see a southpaw. Not only do they hit better vs. left-handers, but they're a lucrative 25-15 (+11.6) their last 40 vs. left-handed starters. The Padres haven't lost 10 in a row in more than 16 years. Behind another strong start from Richard, I expect them to bounce back and avoid that distinction here. *8 |
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MLB | Sep 05, 2010 Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates |
Total 9½ un-108 at 5DIMES |
Won $100 |
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I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Washington to finish UNDER the total. These teams combined for 13 runs in Friday's series opener, a 8-5 Pittsburgh victory. Yesterday's game appeared like it was destined to finish below the total, as the score was 0-0 heading into the fourth inning. That's when the Washington offense woke up though. The Nationals would go on to win by a score of 9-2. While it has the highest O/U line, providing us with plenty of room to work with, I expect this afternoon's finale to be the lowest-scoring of the series. The last two games notwithstanding, lets not forget that these are two of the weaker offenses in baseball. The Pirates average fewer runs than any team in the National League and the Nationals are fourth from the bottom, in that category. Marquis gets the call for Washington. While his overall stats aren't very good, he's been pitching well lately. In fact, he's got a 2.50 ERA his last three starts. He beat the Marlins last time out, allowing three runs. Prior to that, he held both the Cubs and the Phillies to only one run. Marquis has allowed three earned runs or less in three straight road stars and he's allowed four earned runs or less in 15 of his last 19 road starts, dating back to last season. Marquis should be happy to see the Pirates. He's got 10 wins against Pittsburgh (most against any opponent) and is 3-0 with a superb 1.59 ERA his last three starts against them. His last start here at Pittsburgh resulted in a 2-0 victory. Admittedly, Morton has struggled this season. He was pitching poorly in the spring and then got sent down to the minors. He's made one start since being recalled and also had some trouble in that one. He was respectable in his last home start though, limiting the Braves to three runs through six innings. In fact, a closer look reveals that he's delivered three straight "quality" starts at home and that he's allowed four earned runs or less in 13 of his last 14 home starts. Not surprising, the UNDER was a profitable 10-3-1 in those games. He'll be highly motivated for a strong performance and facing a Pittsburgh team which is dismal vs. right-handers is as good an opportunity as he's going to get. I expect him to bounce back with a better effort and the final combined score to stay below the generous number. *10 |
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MLB | Sep 05, 2010 Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox |
Boston Red Sox -142 at BODOG |
Lost $142.0 |
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I'm playing on BOSTON. The White Sox come in as the hotter team and are on the verge of completing a sweep. However, the Red Sox haven't been swept by them here in nearly 20 years and I expect them to bounce back this afternoon. Admittedly, Beckett's numbers aren't very good for the season. He's coming off back to back quality starts though, prompting manager Terry Francona to say this of him: "We've come for a long time to lean on him. Tuesday was more what he can do." Buehrle has had a great career and he's been pitching well lately. That said, he's also got an awful 10.03 ERA in losing his last two starts here at Fenway. In his last start here, gave up seven runs on 11 hits, in just 4 2/3 innings. The Red Sox are a profitable 41-24 (+8) the last 65 times that they were home favorites in the -125 to -150 range, going 15-8 (+4) their last 23 in that role. The Red Sox are also 5-1 in Beckett's six starts vs. Chicago, including 2-0 here at Boston. I expect Beckett to build off Tuesday's strong outing and for the Red Sox to bounce back and stop the bleeding. *7 |
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NCAA-F | Sep 05, 2010 SMU vs. Texas Tech |
Total 60 un-110 at BODOG |
Lost $110.0 |
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I'm playing on Texas Tech and SMU to finish UNDER the total. For years, with Mike Leach as head coach, the Red Raiders have been throwing the ball on practically every down. As you're probably aware though, Leach is gone and Tommy Tuberville (from Auburn) is now in charge. Not only will Tuberville have the team running the ball more regularly, but he should also bring significant improvement to the defensive side of the ball. While it will likely take a little time to adjust to the new 3-4 system, the Red Raiders' defenders should immediately benefit from the Texas Tech offense running the ball more often and staying on the field for longer stretches. In fairness, however, it should be noted that Red Raiders only gave up 22.5 points per game last season, including just 19 their final three games. SMU gave up 27.6 points last season but just 21.7 its final three games and only 21.7 in its four games on turf. The UNDER was 3-1 in those games and 4-2 when the Mustangs played on the road. The Mustangs offense was admittedly fairly potent last season. June Jones found his QB when Kyle Pardon took over midway through the year. Pardon, 5-1 as a starter, returns. He'll be without last year's #1 receiver (Emmanuel Sanders) though while running back Shawnbrey McNeal left for the NFL. The Mustangs have seen the UNDER go 7-3 the last 10 times that they were underdogs in the +10.5 to +21 range. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 17-5 (in games with totals) the last 22 times that they were in that role. These teams last met in 2008. That game stayed below the total by double-digits, finishing with a score of 43-7. That brought the UNDER to a perfect 4-0 in this series, dating back to 2004. While this one figures to be more competitive, I expect to see a similar final combined score here. *9 |
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NCAA-F | Sep 05, 2010 Tulsa vs. East Carolina |
Tulsa -7-110 at BODOG |
Lost $110.0 |
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I'm playing on TULSA. I had East Carolina the last couple of times that the Pirates upset the Golden Hurricane, including last year's 44-17 destruction. I'm going with Tulsa this time though, as this should provide a great opportunity for the Golden Hurricane to exact some revenge. The Pirates have been the CUSA Champs in back to back seasons. This is a rebuilding year though. In addition to having a new coaching staff, the Pirates return only eight starters from last season, including just two on defense. They are inexperienced at quarterback and must learn new schemes on both sides of the ball. While the Pirates will surely take a step back this season, the Golden Hurricanes figure to be improved from last year. They return 14 starters, including nine on offense. Indeed they return offensive players which accounted for 98% of last season's rushing yards and 91% of last season's passing yards. That type of experience should provide a significant advantage vs. an inexperienced defense which is still learning its new system and which lost ALL of its starting defensive linemen. Tulsa coach Todd Graham was quoted as saying: "Usually early in the year, teams beat themselves. We're going to make sure we don't beat ourselves with stupid penalties and we're going to take care of the football and make sure we play disciplined, Tulsa football." The Golden Hurricane have been very strong in September in recent seasons, going 4-1 ATS in September lined games. On the other hand, even the strong ECU squads of the last couple of seasons have gone just 1-6 ATS in September. Those numbers only figure to get worse here. The Golden Hurricane dominated the Pirates the last time that they played here, a 31-10 victory in 2006. They should be a much improved team this season and I look for their edge in the experience department to more than compensate for the Pirates' home field advantage. *10 |
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SERVICE BIO |
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| Ben Burns burst onto the sports betting scene in the 1990s, first making his selections available to the public in 1998. Now entering his tenth year, Ben has become one of the most successful and well-respected handicappers on the entire Internet. From 1998 to 2006, Ben had his selections documented by the Big Guy Sports Monitor. During that time, he accumulated numerous seasonal titles in all the major sports. In fact, competing against a field of 150, Ben's NFL selections still rank as #1 of all-time there. With such a commanding lead over the field, it is highly unlikely that his all-time NFL record there will ever be matched. Like all handicappers, Ben goes through both hot and cold streaks. However, whether winning or losing, he always "tells it like it is." Perhaps more importantly, as his many fans are quick to point out, Ben's winning weeks tend to greatly outnumber his losing ones. Note that Ben followed up an extremely strong 2006 with an even better campaign in 2007! Ben is known as a "Totals Expert" and his over/under plays are highly sought after in all sports. In addition to his "total" success, Ben's "sides" are also known for their sizzling hot streaks. While he advocates playing all his selections equally, Ben's knack for nailing his "Big" plays is truly remarkable. Ben capped off a highly successful college football season by winning his Bowl Game of the Year, a 41-10 wire-to-wire destruction on Georgia over Hawaii. Ben's NFL playoffs didn't go as well though and he lost his first ever Super Bowl selection, when the Patriots were upset by the Giants. Despite that rare setback, Ben's Super Bowl record remains at 10-1 for his career. Additionally, his NFL playoff picks remain a powerful 47-22 (68%) ATS the past six years. Ben isn't just a football expert though, as his hockey, baseball AND basketball picks are also highly respected. Ben logs extremely long hours. His hard work clearly shows itself in his high quality writeups and extraordinary long-term records. If you're looking for an honest, hard-working handicapper with a documented history of success, give Ben Burns a try. We're sure that you'll be impressed! |